Summary
Ahead of the 2012 election, the conservative movement has made a concerted effort to undersell the economic recovery. Ads run by conservative outside groups regularly remark on lost jobs and paint a dismal economic picture. Mitt Romney brushed aside a report that over 170,000 new jobs were created in October to proclaim that the economy “is at a virtual standstill.” Yet there is widespread evidence against the idea that the economy has stalled or worsened during President Obama’s tenure. Where headlines in 2008 and early 2009 proclaimed job losses, a crashing housing market, and a contracting economy, the news in late 2012 is hopeful: 171,000 jobs were added in October, the 32nd straight month of private-sector growth; home prices are up while foreclosures are down; the economy is once again expanding; and consumer confidence is at its highest level since February 2008.
Jobs
2008
November 2008: “240,000 Jobs Disappeared” As “Unemployment Rate Jumped To The Highest Level In 14 Years.” According to the New York Times: “In a sign that American workers may face even more difficult times for many months to come, the nation’s unemployment rate last month jumped to the highest level in 14 years as job losses mounted. Gloomy enough was word from the government on Friday that a fresh 240,000 American jobs disappeared in October, the 10th consecutive month of retrenchment. It brought the toll of lost jobs to 1.2 million for the year — more than half in the last three months alone — while the unemployment rate climbed to 6.5 percent. Worse was the sense that little could be done near term to alter this now-accelerating trajectory.” [New York Times via Nexis, 11/8/08]
2012
November 2012: Better-Than-Expected 171,000 New Jobs In “Just About Every Industry.” According to the New York Times: “The nation’s employers added 171,000 positions in October, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and more jobs than initially estimated in both August and September. Hiring was broad-based, with just about every industry except state government adding jobs.” [New York Times, 11/2/12]
- The Private Sector Has Added 4.97 Million Jobs Over 32 Consecutive Months Of Private-Sector Growth. The following chart shows the monthly change in private-sector jobs dating back to January 2008:
Economic Growth
2008
Fourth Quarter 2008: “United States Economy Shrank At Its Fastest Pace In A Quarter Century”. From the New York Times: “The United States economy shrank at its fastest pace in a quarter century from October through December, the government reported on Friday, in the broadest accounting yet of the toll of the credit crisis. Consumer spending and business investment all but disappeared, and economists said the contraction was likely to continue at an alarming pace well into the summer. The gross domestic product — a crucial measure of economic performance — shrank at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. The decline would have been much steeper — more than 5 percent — if shipments of goods had fallen as sharply as orders.” [New York Times, 1/30/09]
2012
Third Quarter 2012: U.S. Economy Exceeded Expectations To Post 2 Percent Growth. From the Miami Herald: “The U.S. economy accelerated between July through September, growing at an annualized rate of 2 percent, the government said Friday in a report that slightly exceeded expectations. After growing at just 1.3 percent in the second quarter, the U.S. economy sped up in the subsequent three months, beating analyst expectations of a 1.8 percent third-quarter growth rate.” [Miami Herald, 10/26/12]
Housing
2008
December 2008: “Sky Is Falling In Housing Market.” From a Forbes article titled “Sky Is Falling In Housing Market”: “The U.S. economy remains on shaky ground as the housing sector reports another wave of dismal data. The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index showed on Tuesday that the price of single-family homes in the 20-city metropolitan area dropped 18.0% during the month of October from the year-ago period. This is a record drop for the index, which has been measuring home price since 2000. […] According to the data, 14 of the 20 metro areas that are monitored experienced record declines in housing prices during the month of October.” [Forbes, 12/30/08]
2012
October 2012: National Association Of Realtors Chief Economist: “We’re Experiencing A Genuine Recovery.” From the National Association of Realtors: “Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said the market trend is up. ‘Despite occasional month-to-month setbacks, we’re experiencing a genuine recovery,’ he said. ‘More people are attempting to buy homes than are able to qualify for mortgages, and recent price increases are not deterring buyer interest. Rather, inventory shortages are limiting sales, notably in parts of the West.’” [Realtor.org, 10/19/12]
Home Prices
2008
End Of 2008: Home Prices Were Dropping At A Record Rate. From CNNMoney: “Home prices declined at a record pace around the nation in the final three months of 2008, according to an industry report released Tuesday. The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported that prices sank a record 18.2% during the last three months of 2008, compared with the same period in 2007. Case-Shiller’s index of 20 major metropolitan areas fell 18.5%, also a record.” [Money.CNN.com, 2/24/09]
2012
The Housing Market Has Stopped Falling During Obama’s Term. The following chart from finance and economics blog Calculated Risk shows the Standard & Poors/Case Shiller Home Price Indices since 1988:
[CalculatedRiskBlog.com, 10/30/12]
August 2012: Home Prices Rose In Almost All U.S. Cities. From NPR: “Home prices rose in August in nearly all U.S. cities, and many of the markets hit hardest during the crisis are starting to show sustained gains. The increases are the latest evidence of a steady housing recovery. The Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller index reported Tuesday that national home prices increased 2 percent in August compared with the same month a year ago. That’s the third straight increase and a faster pace than in July. The report also said that prices rose in August from July in 19 of the 20 cities tracked by the index. Prices had risen in all 20 cities in the previous three months.” [NPR.org, 10/30/12]
New-Home Construction
2008
December 2008: Home Construction Ended Its Worst Year Since 1959. From the New York Times: “In further signs of the dire economic situation, new-home construction fell to record lows in December and jobless claims continued to soar, the government reported Thursday. New-home construction fell 15.5 percent from November to December to an annual pace of 550,000 units, the slowest pace since the Commerce Department starting compiling the data in 1959. Home builders have all but shut down projects as home values plunge and potential buyers stay on the sidelines of the troubled housing market.” [New York Times, 1/22/09]
2012
September 2012: Home Construction Reached A Four-Year High. From CNNMoney: “The housing recovery blossomed in September, as the pace of home building surged to a four-year high, according to a government report issued Wednesday. Builders started work at an annual pace of 872,000 homes last month, up 15% from the pace in August. They also filed for permits to build homes at an annual rate of 894,000, up 11.6% from the previous month. Both readings were the best since the summer of 2008, before the meltdown in financial markets that caused home lending and building to freeze up.” [Money.CNN.com, 10/17/12]
Foreclosures
2008
Foreclosures Increasing At Record Rate Just Before Obama Took Office. From CNNMoney: “U.S. foreclosure filings spiked by more than 81% in 2008, a record, according to a report released Thursday, and they’re up 225% compared with 2006. A total of 861,664 families lost their homes to foreclosure last year, according to RealtyTrac, which released its year-end report Thursday. There were more than 3.1 million foreclosure filings issued during 2008, which means that one of every 54 households received a notice last year.” [Money.CNN.com, 1/15/09]
2012
September 2012: Foreclosures Are At A Five-Year Low. From CNNMoney: “The wave of foreclosures hitting the nation’s housing market has been much less severe than anticipated, with foreclosure filings at their lowest level in five years last month, according to a report out Thursday. Foreclosure filings — including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 180,427 properties in September, a 7% decline from August and down more than 16% from a year earlier, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. That’s the lowest number of filings since September 2007.” [Money.CNN.com, 10/11/12]
- September 2012 Foreclosures Are Half What They Were At Peak Of Crisis. From the Baltimore Sun: “The number of U.S. homes lost to foreclosure in September was half the number in September 2010 — the peak month of the foreclosure crisis, according to data released Wednesday.” [Baltimore Sun, 11/2/12]
Consumer Confidence
2008
November 2008: “Consumer Confidence Fell To The Lowest Level” In 41 Years. According to the New York Times: “On Tuesday, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since the Conference Board started tracking popular sentiment 41 years ago. A bare 11 percent say the country is headed in the right direction.” [New York Times via Nexis, 11/2/08]
2012
November 2012: Consumer Confidence Reaches Highest Level Since February 2008. According to Bloomberg News: “Confidence among American consumers climbed in October to a more than four-year high, which may help drive bigger gains in the largest part of the economy. The Conference Board’s sentiment index increased to 72.2, the highest since February 2008, from a revised 68.4 in September, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. […] The percent of respondents who say jobs are currently plentiful rose to the highest level since September 2008, indicating that a decline in joblessness is brightening Americans’ moods. Lower gasoline prices and a budding housing recovery are also contributing to the improvement in confidence.” [Bloomberg News, 11/1/12]
Auto Sales
2008
December 2008: “Auto Sales Plunged By 36 Percent” For Worst Year Since 1992. From Reuters: “U.S. auto sales plunged by 36 percent in December led by outsized declines at Chrysler LLC, Hyundai Motor and Toyota Motor Corp as the battered industry closed out its weakest year since 1992 in its largest single market.” [Reuters, 1/6/09, stock market tags removed]
2012
September 2012: Car Sales At “Highest Level In More Than Four Years.” From CNNMoney: “U.S. car buyers flooded showrooms in September, sending auto sales to their highest level in more than four years. Overall sales were were [sic] up 13% from a year ago, according to sales tracker Autodata, which put the pace of sales at an annual rate of just under 15 million vehicles. That easily topped most forecasts and was even better than the spike in sales caused by the government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program three years ago. The last time sales reached this level was February 2008, before gas prices surged and the financial meltdown caused a deep, sustained drop in auto sales. […] ‘Retail sales in early September were 15% higher than they were a year ago, which is reflective of a healthy market,’ said John Humphrey, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates.” Money.CNN.com, 10/2/12]
- October 2012: Despite Superstorm Sandy, GM And Chrysler’s Sales Strongest Since Financial Crisis. From Reuters: “Superstorm Sandy’s fury caused U.S. auto sales to fall short of expectations in October, but industry executives still see a strong fourth quarter as the housing market improves. While General Motors Co (GM.N) and Chrysler Group LLC both reported their strongest sales for October since the 2007-09 financial crisis, the massive storm that hit the U.S. East Coast took as much as 30,000 vehicle sales out of the mix by keeping shoppers away from dealers. […] The U.S. auto industry ended October with a 7 percent increase in vehicle sales to more than 1.09 million, the highest level in October since 1.23 million sales were reported for that month in 2007. ” [Reuters, 11/1/12]
Retail Sales
2008
December 2008: “Gloomy Retail Sales Report” Showed Sales Falling For Sixth Straight Month. From the New York Times: “A gloomy retail sales report pushed Wall Street sharply lower on Wednesday as investors received another reminder that business was bad. […] The government reported on Wednesday that retail sales fell for a sixth consecutive month in December, as Americans holstered their credit cards and cut back on spending, even as stores offered discounts of 80 percent to entice shoppers.” [1/14/09]
2012
September 2012: Consumer Spending Rose To Reach Highest Level Since February. From the Wall Street Journal: “U.S. consumer spending rose last month to its highest level since February, while Americans saved at the weakest pace in nearly a year. Personal-consumption expenditures—which measure purchases ranging from goods like cars, clothes and food to services such as health care and travel—increased 0.8% in September compared with the prior month, the Commerce Department said Monday. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.4%. […] Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of demand in the economy.” [Wall Street Journal, 10/29/12]
- October 2012: Retail Sales Experienced A “Healthy Gain.” From the Los Angeles Times: “Shoppers hit the malls and handed retailers a healthy gain in October before Sandy pummeled the Northeast, a positive sign pointing to a decent holiday season head. Major chains posted a 2.7% increase in retail sales in October compared with the same month a year earlier, on par with analysts’ expectations, according to Thomson Reuters’ tally of 18 retailers. Excluding drugstores, however, retail sales are up 4.7%, exceeding expectations of 4.3%.” [Los Angeles Times, 11/1/12]
Manufacturing
2008
November 2008: Manufacturing Activity Fell To Lowest Level Since 1982. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “Business at U.S. manufacturers fell to the lowest level in 26 years in October, in what some economists said was another sign of recession. The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its manufacturing index fell to 38.9, the lowest reading since September 1982, when the country was in a deep recession. Any reading below 50 signals contraction in the economy.” [Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 11/4/08]
2012
November 2012: Manufacturing Expansion “Picked Up Pace In October.” From The Hill: “The expansion of the manufacturing sector picked up pace in October behind an increase in new orders and production, providing a final glimpse into growth only five days before the election. Activity increased to 51.7, up slightly from 51.5 in September, the second straight month of growth after three months of contraction, the Institute for Supply Management said Thursday. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.” [The Hill, 11/1/12]