A Crossroads GPS ad linking Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) to President Obama’s policies, particularly the Recovery Act, tries to paint a picture of wasteful spending that drove up the national debt without creating jobs. But the ad misrepresents projects funded by the stimulus, and in reality, Recovery Act spending is responsible for millions of jobs and for helping to stave off an even deeper recession. Meanwhile, it was Bush-era policies and the Great Recession that drove up debt, while spending growth under President Obama has been historically low.
“Failed” Recovery Act Created Millions Of Jobs, Boosted GDP, And Cut Taxes
Recovery Act “Succeeded In…Protecting The Economy During The Worst Of The Recession.” From the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: “A new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report estimates that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) increased the number of people employed by between 200,000 and 1.5 million jobs in March. In other words, between 200,000 and 1.5 million people employed in March owed their jobs to the Recovery Act. […] ARRA succeeded in its primary goal of protecting the economy during the worst of the recession. The CBO report finds that ARRA’s impact on jobs peaked in the third quarter of 2010, when up to 3.6 million people owed their jobs to the Recovery Act. Since then, the Act’s job impact has gradually declined as the economy recovers and certain provisions expire.” [CBPP.org, 5/29/12]
At Its Peak, Recovery Act Was Responsible For Up To 3.6 Million Jobs. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office:
CBO estimates that ARRAs [sic] policies had the following effects in the third quarter of calendar year 2010:
- They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product by between 1.4 percent and 4.1 percent,
- Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.8 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points,
- Increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.6 million, and
- Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 2.0 million to 5.2 million compared with what would have occurred otherwise. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers). [CBO.gov, 11/24/10]
Recovery Act Included $288 Billion In Tax Cuts. From PolitiFact: “Nearly a third of the cost of the stimulus, $288 billion, comes via tax breaks to individuals and businesses. The tax cuts include a refundable credit of up to $400 per individual and $800 for married couples; a temporary increase of the earned income tax credit for disadvantaged families; and an extension of a program that allows businesses to recover the costs of capital expenditures faster than usual. The tax cuts aren’t so much spending as money the government won’t get — so it can stay in the economy.” [PolitiFact.com, 2/17/10]
Private Sector Has Gained 4.5 Million Jobs In The Last 29 Months
Recession Officially Ran From December 2007 To June 2009, Making It The Longest Since World War II. From the National Bureau of Economic Research: “The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months. In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.” [NBER.org, 9/20/10]
- Recession Resulted In 8.3 Million Job Losses. According to the Associated Press, “the Great Recession killed 8.3 million jobs, compared with 1.6 million lost in the 2001 recession.” [Associated Press via Yahoo! News,5/4/12]
Bush Recession Was So Severe That Economy Was Still Shedding Over Three-Quarters Of A Million Jobs Per Month Through First Few Months Of President Obama’s Term. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 839,000 jobs in January 2009, 725,000 in February 2009, 787,000 in March 2009, and 802,000 in April 2009, for a four-month average of 788,250 lost jobs per month. [BLS.gov, accessed 5/3/12]
Since The Recession Ended In June 2009, The Private Sector Has Added 3.3 Million Jobs While Public-Sector Employment Has Fallen By Over 640,000. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 107,933,000 private-sector jobs in June 2009, and 111,317,000 private-sector jobs in July 2012, an increase of 3,384,000 jobs. The BLS also reports that there were 22,570,000 Americans working in the public sector in June 2009, and 21,928,000 working in the public sector in July 2012, a decrease of 642,000 jobs. The private-sector gains and public-sector losses add up to a total increase of 2,742,000 jobs.
The following chart shows the cumulative private-sector job gains and public-sector job losses since the recession officially ended in June 2009:
- Conservative AEI: The Public Sector Is Shrinking, But Private-Sector Growth Is Above Average. From American Enterprise Institute scholar Mark J. Perry: “In the second quarter of 2012, ‘public sector GDP’ decreased -1.44%, and that was the eighth straight quarter of negative growth for total government spending, averaging -2.88% per quarter over the last two years. In contrast, there have been 12 consecutive quarters of positive growth for private sector GDP averaging 3.07% per quarter in the three years since the recession ended, which is slightly higher than the 2.8% average growth rate in private real GDP over the last 25 years.” [AEI-Ideas.org, 7/31/12]
- GOP-Favored “Government Downsizing” Has Been “A Drag” On Job Growth. From the Associated Press: “Conservative Republicans have long clamored for government downsizing. They’re starting to get it — by default. Crippled by plunging tax revenues, state and local governments have shed over a half million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. And, after adding jobs early in the downturn, the federal government is now cutting them as well. States cut 49,000 jobs over the past year and localities 210,000, according to an analysis of Labor Department statistics. There are 30,000 fewer federal workers now than a year ago — including 5,300 Postal Service jobs canceled last month. By contrast, private-sector jobs have increased by 1.6 million over the past 12 months. But the state, local and federal job losses have become a drag on efforts to nudge the nation’s unemployment rate down from its painfully high 9.1 percent.” [Associated Press, 10/25/11]
The Private Sector Has Added 4.5 Million Jobs Over 29 Consecutive Months Of Private-Sector Growth. The following chart shows the monthly change in private-sector jobs dating back to January 2008.
Missouri’s Unemployment Rate Has Fallen By More Than 2 Percentage Points Since Recession Ended
Missouri Unemployment Rate Has Fallen From 9.7 Percent To 7.1 Percent Since Recession Ended. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Missouri had an unemployment rate of 8.6 percent at the beginning of 2009, and it peaked at 9.7 percent in August of that year (shortly after the recession ended in June, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research). As of June 2012, Missouri’s unemployment rate is 7.1 percent. [BLS.gov, accessed 7/22/12; NBER.org, 9/20/10]
- Missouri Has Gained More Than 6,000 Net Jobs Since The Recession Ended. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 2,786,789 employed Missourians in June 2009 – the last month of the recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research – and there were 2,793,232 Missourians working in April 2012. That’s an increase of 6,443 Missouri jobs. [BLS.gov, accessed 7/22/12; NBER.org, 9/20/10]
- Missouri Has Lost Almost 15,000 Government Jobs Since The Beginning Of 2009. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Missouri had 448,700 government workers in January 2009, a number that fell to 430,700 by June 2012. That’s a decrease of 18,000 government jobs. [BLS.gov, accessed 5/18/12]
Attacks Losing Steam?
In 2010, American Crossroads Blamed Recovery Act For “Almost 100,000 Missouri Jobs Lost.” In 2010, Crossroads GPS’ sister organization, American Crossroads, produced an ad targeting Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan containing a graphic that read “Almost 100,000 Missouri Jobs Lost.”
[American Crossroads via YouTube, 9/13/10]
McCaskill Didn’t Vote For Ant Funding Or To Study Venus – She Voted To Fund The National Science Foundation
Stimulus Didn’t Directly Fund Ant Research – It Funded National Science Foundation. From a PolitiFact article about a 2010 ad attacking Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden (D): “But [the Recovery Act], it turns out, didn’t release any money to ant research — not directly. The federal stimulus gave $3 billion to the National Science Foundation, which otherwise had a budget of about $6.5 billion in 2009, according to the foundation’s Website. The foundation is distributing the money using the same peer-review process with which it normally decides on which research to fund.” [PolitiFact.com, 9/17/10]
NSF Gave Grant To Research Looking At Ants As Climate Change Indicators. From a PolitiFact article about a 2010 ad attacking Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden (D): “As it turns out, one scientist’s study on ants of the Southwest Indian Ocean and East Africa made the cut. PolitiFact Oregon caught up with Brian Fisher, the project’s leader and curator of entomology at the California Academy of Sciences, to pick his brain about the recent political celebrity of ants. He was, maybe surprisingly, pretty unfazed. ‘I think it’s legitimate,’ he said. ‘There’s no reason why people shouldn’t challenge this and question what we’re doing.’ What exactly are they doing? Well, over the course of the next five years, Fisher and his team will be studying arthropods — a category that includes ants — in a part of the world he describes as immensely diverse, biologically speaking. While ant research might not seem like an obvious target for government funds, Fisher provides a logical defense. Ants, Fisher says, offer insight into climate change, the spread of disease and natural disasters. ‘You can’t monitor every single living thing, (but) there are key groups that can serve as indicators for other taxa, ants being one of them,’ he said. ‘Without them, we wouldn’t have a functioning ecosystem.’ It’s also worth noting that the project has so far helped employ 16 people, at Fisher’s last count.” [PolitiFact.com, 9/17/10]
Study Of Venus’ Weather Also Funded By A NSF Grant. According to Research.gov, the National Science Foundation awarded the Southwest Research Institute $298,543 under the Recovery Act to collect data on Venus’ atmospheric circulation. [Research.gov, accessed 6/13/12; Research.gov, 6/13/12]
$25 Million For Vermont Ski Lift Was A Loan
Ski Resort Got $25 Million In Loans. From the Deerfield Valley News: “On June 7, the Vermont Economic Development Authority approved $92.3 million in loans for Vermont businesses. The money was provided through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act for economic development growth. The VEDA selected 14 businesses and organizations from around the state. Mount Snow is one of two Windham County businesses that will receive VEDA funds. Mount Snow received preliminary approval for $25 million in Recovery Zone Facility Bond Financing. The Recovery Zone Facility Bond program offers tax-exempt financing for large fixed-asset projects such as manufacturing facilities, commercial establishments, and office buildings.” [Deerfield Valley News, accessed 6/13/12]
Ski Resort Improvements Predicted To Create New Jobs. From the Deerfield Valley News: “Mount Snow will utilize the $25 million in loans to finance the ski area’s planned capital improvement project. Much of the money will go toward the replacement of the Summit Local and Sunbrook chairlifts, construction of a 120-million-gallon storage pond for snowmaking purposes, and the installation of additional fan guns. The upgrades will help Mount Snow increase snowmaking efficiency and lift capacity and may lead to 17 additional jobs within the next three years.” [Deerfield Valley News, accessed 6/13/12]
Bush-Era Policies And The Recession Drove Up Debt And Spending
Prior To President Obama’s Inauguration, President Bush Had Already Created A Projected $1.2 Trillion Deficit For Fiscal Year 2009. From the Washington Times: “The Congressional Budget Office announced a projected fiscal 2009 deficit of $1.2 trillion even if Congress doesn’t enact any new programs. […] About the only person who was silent on the deficit projection was Mr. Bush, who took office facing a surplus but who saw spending balloon and the country notch the highest deficits on record.” [Washington Times, 1/8/09]
NYT: President Bush’s Policy Changes Created Much More Debt Than President Obama’s. The New York Times published the following chart comparing the fiscal impact of policies enacted under the Bush and Obama administrations:
[New York Times, 7/24/11]
Recession Added Hundreds Of Billions In Deficits By Increasing Spending On Safety Net While Shrinking Tax Revenue. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) explains: “When unemployment rises and incomes stagnate in a recession, the federal budget responds automatically: tax collections shrink, and spending goes up for programs like unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Food Stamps.” According to CBPP: “The recession battered the budget, driving down tax revenues and swelling outlays for unemployment insurance, food stamps, and other safety-net programs. Using CBO’s August 2008 projections as a benchmark, we calculate that the changed economic outlook alone accounts for over $400 billion of the deficit each year in 2009 through 2011 and slightly smaller amounts in subsequent years. Those effects persist; even in 2018, the deterioration in the economy since the summer of 2008 will account for over $300 billion in added deficits, much of it in the form of additional debt-service costs.” [CBPP.org, 11/18/10; CBPP.org, 5/10/11, citations removed]
Over The Coming Decade, The Bush Tax Cuts Are The Primary Cause Of Federal Budget Deficits. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities prepared a chart showing the deficit impact of the Bush tax cuts (orange), the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the recession itself, and spending to rescue the economy:
CBPP: Bush Tax Cuts And Wars Are Driving The Debt. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:
The complementary chart, below, shows that the Bush-era tax cuts and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars — including their associated interest costs — account for almost half of the projected public debt in 2019 (measured as a share of the economy) if we continue current policies.
[Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 5/20/11]
Spending Growth Under Obama Is Low
January 2009 (Pre-Obama): Federal Spending Projected To Spike To $3.5 Trillion Without Any Policy Changes. In January 2009, the Congressional Budget Office projected: “Without changes in current laws and policies, CBO estimates, outlays will rise from $3.0 trillion in 2008 to $3.5 trillion in 2009.” [Congressional Budget Office, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019,” January 2009]
Accounting For Inflation And President Obama’s Impact On FY 2009, Spending Will Have Grown By Just 1.7 Percent From 2009 To 2012. According to Michael Linden, Director of Tax and Budget Policy at the Center for American Progress:
[I]n January 2009, before President Obama had even taken office, the Congressional Budget Office projected that federal spending would exceed $3.5 trillion for fiscal year 2009, half a trillion more than the government spent in 2008. Again, that was BEFORE President Obama event took office. It’s reasonable to use that number as our best guess at what spending would have been in FY2009 under ANY president. […]
Of course, the CBO’s projections aren’t perfect. They change as the economy changes and as laws change. Fortunately, CBO also tells us in subsequent reports how and why its previous estimates have changed. We can use that to understand how much of the total federal spending in fiscal year 2009 was attributable to legislative changes that occurred AFTER President Obama took office.
The answer is that out of a total of $3.5 trillion actually spent in FY09, only $165 billion, less than 5 percent, was the result of policy changes signed into law by President Obama.
In other words, probably the best baseline against which to judge spending under Obama is $3.5 trillion (the amount actually spent in 2009) minus $165 billion (the added amount Obama himself actually approved): $3.35 trillion. This year, the CBO expects that the federal government will spend $3.6 trillion. After accounting for inflation, that’s a growth rate of just 1.7 percent. By comparison, and using the exact same methodology, spending in President Bush’s first term was up nearly 15 percent. [ThinkProgress.org, 5/25/12]
PolitiFact: Spending Growth Under Obama Is “Second-Slowest” In Recent History. According to PolitiFact: “Obama has indeed presided over the slowest growth in spending of any president [in recent history] using raw dollars, and the growth on his watch was the second-slowest if you adjust for inflation.” [PolitiFact.com, 5/23/12]
Republicans Have Opposed President Obama’s Deficit-Reduction Efforts
Under President Obama’s FY 2013 Budget, Deficit Would Fall Below $1 Trillion For First Time Since Bush Left Office. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of President Obama’s FY 2013 budget proposal, “the deficit would decline to $977 billion (or 6.1 percent of GDP)” in 2013, and further fall to 3 percent of GDP in 2022. By contrast, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: “The deficit for fiscal year 2009 — which began more than three months before President Obama’s inauguration — was $1.4 trillion and, at 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the largest deficit relative to the economy since the end of World War II.” [CBO.gov, March 2012; CBPP.org, 5/10/11]
September 2011: Obama Proposed $3 Trillion In Deficit Reduction; “Republicans Swiftly Responded … With Opposition.” According to the Los Angeles Times: “President Obama on Monday made an aggressive pitch for his $3-trillion deficit-reduction strategy, promising to veto any proposal that fails to raise revenues by asking wealthy Americans to ‘pay their fair share.’ […] His plan for lopping $3 trillion from the deficit is on top of the approximately $1 trillion in spending cuts that he signed into law in August, after reaching a deal with Republican congressional leaders to lift the nation’s debt ceiling. On Monday, Republicans swiftly responded to the president’s proposal with opposition. [Los Angeles Times, 9/19/11]
April 2011: GOP Rejected Obama Proposal To Reduce Deficits By $4 Trillion. According to the Boston Globe: “President Obama pledged yesterday to pare the projected deficit by $4 trillion in the next 12 years, vowing to protect the nation’s most vulnerable while pushing again for higher taxes for its richest citizens. […] His call for the end of the Bush tax cuts for incomes above $250,000 for couples reignites a ferocious debate from the fall midterm elections. That element of the speech triggered the most vociferous and immediate opposition from Republicans.” [Boston Globe, 4/14/11]
[NARRATOR:] Senator Claire McCaskill was a key Obama adviser in passing his failed $1.18 trillion stimulus. Claire’s votes sent nearly $2 million to California to collect ants in Africa. $25 million for new chair lifts and snowmaking in Vermont. Almost $300,000 to Texas to study weather on Venus, while in Missouri, 16,000 have lost their jobs. Tell Claire to help Missouri. Stop the reckless spending, cut the debt, and support the New Majority Agenda at NewMajorityAgenda.org. [Crossroads GPS via YouTube, 6/13/12]